SoftBank Vision Fund 2

// WOWL ASSESSMENT

SoftBank Vision Fund 2 deploys at peak valuations across 35 portfolio companies worth $156.4B, with half the top-ten holdings classified as BLOATED or worse. A 3% hit rate against 14% misses reveals a fund that bought into late-cycle narratives — blockchain gaming (Sorare), convenience retail bubble (GoPuff), and AI names marked at multiples disconnected from revenue. Only Tempus escaped to public markets; the rest remain trapped at private marks set during the zero-rate euphoria of 2021-2022.

Revolut anchors the portfolio at $75B — a mark set before banking multiples collapsed and neobank margins revealed themselves as structurally low. Sorare represents the nadir: a blockchain gaming unicorn valued at $4.6B during NFT mania, now TERMINAL HYPE as the category evaporated. GoPuff, BLOATED at $3.5B, epitomizes Vision Fund 2's core mistake — paying growth-stage prices for companies with convenience-store unit economics. The one public exit, Tempus, validates nothing about fund discipline; it simply proves biotech AI had a 2024 exit window.

// THREAT LEVEL: TOO BIG TO FAIL

VERDICT: SoftBank Vision Fund 2 is a $156B monument to peak-cycle capital destruction — too large to liquidate, too concentrated in BLOATED marks to distribute, and structurally incapable of admitting what these companies are actually worth.